| submitted by /u/Follow_Rules
Go to http://moonmath.win for the full update and rainbow charts
I've said this before: When I get quiet, it's time to accumulate. I've been quiet. Before I went quiet I suggested it was a good time to DCA into a position. The jury is far from out on that, but I think moon math is tracking pretty well with this retrace.
Moon Math takes a long-term bull perspective. It doesn't say "Insane awesome returns forever!" Instead, it invites you to consider our current price position against past trends. I know for a fact that some people look at the rainbow charts and think "Oh boy, we're in the red and it's only up from here." That's insane. Don't do that again. Projecting the price based on the trend from the ATH isn't going to work out for anyone. The Moon Math we're seeing today is probably a better projector of performance than any time in the last several months (I'll get that time travel feature done someday).
Is this retrace over? I'm going to shout an unsatisfying and resounding "possibly" on this. Part of the reason that I haven't been posting is that my position on this hasn't changed. "Possibly" and "no change" is a boring answer, but I'll spice it up for you a little today, because the outlook has improved from when I last posted.
BBands are tightening.
BBands have been tightening for a while, and we're going to start seeing tight BBands on the 12-hour chart soon. Bitcoin is volatile. BBands like this predict a move in one direction or the other. A direction for the price will be more firmly established in the next five days. If it breaks down I expect slower growth over the next four to six months as well as significantly less volatility. If we break up, then I think we’ll see continued parabolic growth on the log chart and a new ATH in the next month. Clearly, I think that the price breaking down one more time will be good for Bitcoin long-term.
We can sustain BBands this tight for months at a time. Observe the 12-hour bands In April through June in 2017. That pattern shows the price doubling in 2 months. So, nothing definitive there. Having a direction doesn't mean we'll have a big change in price, though.
Bouncing off the bottom of our short-term trend
We've bounced off the bottom of our short-term trend 4 times in the last two weeks with decreasing bear volume. That indicates that there's a lot of support at the bottom of our trend. The drop in volume shows that bears are running out of supply.
The short-term up trend is sustainable
The slope of our short-term trend is only slightly greater than the 6-month trend. IMO, fundamentals show that it's possible to maintain that trend indefinitely. That's true of a rational market, anyway.
- Segwit adoption http://segwit.party/charts/
- Lightning adoption
- Mempool clearing out https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#24h
- 2 – 5 satoshi transaction fees being confirmed again
Local Bitcoins Volume is growing
Volume at Local Bitcoins is about 5x to 6x what it was this time last year. I'm not sure they can bust at the seams like that for another year, but linear growth from here seems like a conservative expectation for at least the next year. I suspect we're going to see about 40 to 80 million USD a day flow into Bitcoin through Local Bitcoins by the end of 2018. That will be an important metric used to analyze our entrance into a pre-halving market through 2019.
Sentiment is as low as we've seen in a while
Consider the price and infrastructure of Bitcoin today vs six months ago. Consider the attacks we've flourished through. It's normal to see sentiment turn against Bitcoin. If it didn't we'd see unstainable growth and even more volatility. If you bet against the crowd, now is the time to make a bet.
Going back into my hole and shutting up while I'm proven right, again. Maybe I'll check in again later this week.
Go to http://moonmath.win for the full update and rainbow charts
|Label||7-day Performance||30-day Performance||60-day Performance||90-day Performance||2017 – Present Performance||2016 – Present Performance||2015 – Present Performance||2014 – Present Performance||2013 – Present Performance||2012 – Present Performance||2011 – Present Performance||July 2010 – Present Performance|
|Starting Price USD||$ 11,522.86||$ 14,427.87||$ 9,816.35||$ 6,121.80||$ 997.69||$ 434.46||$ 313.92||$ 770.44||$ 13.30||$ 5.27||$ 0.30||$ 0.09|
|Compounding Daily Periodic Rate||0.21%||-0.70%||0.29%||0.72%||0.63%||0.44%||0.32%||0.18%||0.37%||0.35%||0.41%||0.43%|
|Over $ 20,000.00 on||2018-10-08||Never!!!||2018-07-30||2018-04-12||2018-04-21||2018-05-29||2018-07-11||2018-11-15||2018-06-20||2018-06-27||2018-06-02||2018-05-26|
|Over $ 31,622.78 on||2019-05-13||Never!!!||2019-01-03||2018-06-14||2018-07-03||2018-09-11||2018-11-30||2019-07-24||2018-10-23||2018-11-06||2018-09-22||2018-09-10|
|Over $ 100,000.00 on||2020-11-08||Never!!!||2020-02-01||2018-11-21||2019-01-02||2019-06-03||2019-11-22||2021-04-13||2019-09-02||2019-10-03||2019-06-30||2019-06-04|
|Over $ 1,000,000.00 on||2023-11-02||Never!!!||2022-03-30||2019-10-06||2020-01-03||2020-11-13||2021-11-04||2024-09-23||2021-05-22||2021-07-26||2021-01-11||2020-11-20|
Do you know how far away $ 10,000 looked? It's easy to forget. I got into Bitcoin in 2011. I started the San Francisco Bitcoin Meetup. The first meeting was six of us at a bar, not sure how crazy we were. The price that year went from $ 1 to $ 30 — wow! And then it crashed to $ 3, and many people wondered if it would continue on to zero. The whole time, at that first meeting and later ones, the main line of thought, as far as price goes, was: "Bitcoins are probably worth nothing. But if this does become a thing, they'll be worth a lot." And $ 10,000, specifically that number, was as high as anybody dared to dream. That was the number where you'd propose it with a laugh, and then everyone would look away, embarrassed but dreamy-eyed. So please let me tell you, $ 10,000 is the moon.
When I started the meetup, I just wanted to meet anyone who had even heard of Bitcoin. Of course there were online discussions, but I was so profoundly excited about this thing, and no one I knew in real life had heard of it (except my friends who I was relentlessly badgering). That's a weird place to be. Especially since today, almost everyone has heard of Bitcoin. So I meet up with these guys and I got to experience that shared excitement in person. I understood how members of an esoteric cult must feel. We strongly believed something — that Bitcoin might be part of the future — that almost nobody outside of that room believed. I was only pretty sure we weren't crazy.
The second meetup was already bigger, and incredibly inspiring. My hope going in was that some people would get together to start a new project because of the meetup, but it became clear that that wasn't going to happen — everyone was already working on something. Besides talking about our projects, there was debate about the usual subjects: what's next for Bitcoin? What's it most useful for? What'll it look like in a year? No one was out to prove anything, everyone was hoping to discover something. Many people came through those first few meetings: the original founder of MtGox, the ExchB founders (remember?), the TradeHill founders, the future founder of Coinbase, a bitcoinj author, and more. I say this only with the hopes that it gives me some scrap of authority, not as a leader, but simply as someone who was there, who was present for the early narrative. No one was imagining past $ 10,000. So, to me, $ 10,000 is the moon.
And ok, there's a technical question of whether we mean $ 10,000/BTC, or $ 10,000 when you add BTC + BCH and whatever other forks. I say the former. If we're going to add up all the forks, there's an asterisk on the party, and we have to explain the details. We don't want details, we want headlines. We want the moon. So if it hits $ 10,000 per BTC, we should celebrate! $ 10,000 is the moon.
There's always the stars.
As the overall value of crypto passed the $ 150 bln market cap boundary once again, Bitcoin appears to have broken out of a stagnant period after …
Google Alert – bitcoin
Lets call our milestones by moon names to start at 5k with Moon 🙂 Earth – Moon 5k Mars – Deimos 10k Jupiter – Io 15k – Europa 20k – Ganymede 25k – Callisto 30k Saturn – Mimas 35k – Enceladus 40k – Dione 45k – Titan 50k – Hyperian 55k – Lapetus 60k Uranus – Miranda 65k – Ariel 70k – Titania 75k – Oberon 80k Neptune – Triton 85k – Nereid 90k Pluto – Charon 95k Eris…