Price of Bitcoin AMA: I’m Emiliano Pagnotta, Assistant Professor of Finance at Imperial College Business School. I have recently published a research paper titled ‘Bitcoin As Decentralized Money: Prices, Mining Rewards, and Network Security’. AMA! (Live at 10am ET, Wed 28 Nov 2018)

Hi Reddit! I’m Emiliano Pagnotta, Assistant Professor of Finance at Imperial College Business School. I have recently published a research paper titled ‘Bitcoin As Decentralized Money: Prices, Mining Rewards, and Network Security’.

About the paper:

In it, I address the determination and evolution of bitcoin prices and propose a simple monetary model that, unlike traditional ones, captures salient features of a decentralized network. In the framework I propose, network users forecast the transactional and resale value of bitcoin holdings and consider the risk of a network attack.

Miners contribute resources that enhance network security and compete for mining rewards received in units of the same token used by consumers. In equilibrium, the overall production of network security and the bitcoin price are jointly determined. Put simply, price does not follow the system hashrate and the hashrate does not passively follow the price either.

I develop several empirical predictions that show how the characteristics of network technologies and participants, users and miners, affect the number and dynamic stability properties of equilibria.

Regarding reward halvings, I find that the relation between bitcoin prices and the supply growth rate is not monotonic: the same price is consistent with different rates. The model’s outcomes demonstrate how intrinsic price–security feedback effects can amplify or moderate the price volatility effect of demand and supply shocks. I find rational patterns of price momentum with frequent booms and crashes and that small and large bubbles can exist in equilibrium and show how the probability of bursting decreases with the bitcoin price.

Earlier this year I published an article on the ‘Value of Bitcoin and Decentralized Network Assets’. I held an AMA on the topic, which can be seen here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/8c05vr/hi_rbitcoin_im_emiliano_pagnotta_assistant/

About me:

  • My research focuses on the exchange and valuation of financial assets and the organization and evolution of the markets where those assets trade in.
  • Recently, my work analyzes the consequences of speed and fragmentation in financial markets, the identification of private information in stock and derivatives markets, and the valuation of Bitcoin and other blockchain assets. This research is regularly presented in leading academic and professional conferences and published in academic journals such as Econometrica.
  • Before joining Imperial College, I was at the New York University Stern School of Business. I hold a Ph.D. in Economics from Northwestern University.

I’ll be back at 10am ET Wednesday 28 Nov to answer your questions, ask me anything!

Proof:

http://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/e.pagnotta

http://www.emilianopagnotta.com/

To learn more about me and my research, follow me on Twitter @esp_research and LinkedIn.

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Bitcoin – The Currency of the Internet

Hi r/Bitcoin. I’m Emiliano Pagnotta, Assistant Professor of Finance at Imperial College Business School. I just published a research paper on the fundamental value and the price of Bitcoin (see link). I’m holding an AMA on the topic here on Mon 16 April at 11am ET

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Bitcoin – The Currency of the Internet

According to Guy Corem ex Spondoolies CEO there was a meeting in NY that Barry Silbert arranged and an agreement was made, it will be published in the morning NY time.

Quoting all his messages from the post:
++ "a hydrogen bomb is coming"

++ "I wasn't expecting this to be the result" (of the whole HF/Segwit saga).

++ An answer to the question "is there an agreement?" he replied "it's quite on sided hence the use of hydrogen bomb".

++ "it's coming, he just emailed good to go" (probably quoting a message he received).

++ "to my defense I would say that we are witnessing an historic event".

++ answering the question "is there a time frame ? " (for the news to be published) he said "how much can I nag him, eventually he will block me " (referring to his source).

++ "don't be mad. he (the source) is going back to every one who signed the original agreement and checking if they agree to the version agreed at the meeting".

++ "will probably publish first thing in the AM in NY" (quoting his source).

++ "I thought he will publish according to those attended the actual meeting and then add the rest (whoever agrees)" (talking about the actions of his source).

++ "there is a convention in NY in that convention there was a meeting arranged by Barry Silbert. they reached agreement. tomorrow morning NY time it will be published".

edit: some picture I capture for proof it's in Hebrew but there is one part I quoted in English.
http://imgur.com/a/R0bRa

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Bitcoin