| submitted by /u/nuts12
I may just be talking for myself here, but feel like we Bitcoiners are starting to wake up from this bizarre narrative (THEIR Narrative, and we all know who THEY are) that Bitcoin is some kind of digital asset 'investment' made in fiat to buy and sell (hopefully) in return for fiat profits.
It seems like the shortest time ago, Bitcoin was all about a peaceful silent revolution where, by simply buying what we could afford to lose and encouraging others to do the same and HODLing, we had a chance – maybe the only chance in human history – to remove the power of a select few to create money out of thin air to lord it over all of us and throw endless fake wars with it.
Then suddenly, we started 'getting rich', in fiat terms of course (our meager Bitcoin HODLings staying the same).
We got drunk on the euphoria. 'Real traders' with suits, the talking heads, the IMF, the rothschildes for god's sake – everyone in fact – raving on about the ROI of Bitcoin 'investments'. TA, buy low sell high, price predictions, lambos etc dominated our feeds and our thoughts.
We were duped.
THEY (and again, we know who THEY are) fooled us into viewing Bitcoin not as the revolutionary leaderless, censorship/gov resistant, borderless, permissionless and transparent form of exchange this world has NEVER had, but rather just another thing to buy with substanceless, permissioned fake fiat currency to 'get rich'.
In short, we all, bitcoiners and nocoiners alike, viewed the whole phenomena from the perspective THEY decided for us.
Not the perspective we were employing at the time – our perspective, our narrative. We allowed, in our own hearts and minds, OUR narrative to be replaced.
Then came the divide and conquer – the apparent 'scaling debate'. It took us by surprise. We hurried to study up on it (some more than others) and consequently chose 'our team' without ever realizing it was THEIR idea, this debate.
Their 'agreements', their fork, their version of Bitcoin ensued. We got sucked into battling with the gullible few who fell for it and who consequently (and understandably) dug in their heals to defend their erroneous decisions. We got side tracked, again, inTHEIR narrative. It bought them a lot of time and strengthened their successful narrative that made us view this phenomena as a fiat 'investment'.
Guess what, we are still standing, Bitcoin, the money badger don't care, it's still moving forward. When will we ??
Are we ready to drop THEIR narrative, THEIR perspective and get on with the revolution yet???
Our children, grand children etc are still depending on us.
Consensus 2018, a three-day bitcoin conference happening in NYC this week, attracted over 8,400 attendees this year, up from about 2,700 in 2017, …
Google Alert – bitcoin
Check out @TokenHunters’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/TokenHunters/status/989379331284701184?s=09
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Go to http://moonmath.win for the full update and rainbow charts
I've said this before: When I get quiet, it's time to accumulate. I've been quiet. Before I went quiet I suggested it was a good time to DCA into a position. The jury is far from out on that, but I think moon math is tracking pretty well with this retrace.
Moon Math takes a long-term bull perspective. It doesn't say "Insane awesome returns forever!" Instead, it invites you to consider our current price position against past trends. I know for a fact that some people look at the rainbow charts and think "Oh boy, we're in the red and it's only up from here." That's insane. Don't do that again. Projecting the price based on the trend from the ATH isn't going to work out for anyone. The Moon Math we're seeing today is probably a better projector of performance than any time in the last several months (I'll get that time travel feature done someday).
Is this retrace over? I'm going to shout an unsatisfying and resounding "possibly" on this. Part of the reason that I haven't been posting is that my position on this hasn't changed. "Possibly" and "no change" is a boring answer, but I'll spice it up for you a little today, because the outlook has improved from when I last posted.
BBands are tightening.
BBands have been tightening for a while, and we're going to start seeing tight BBands on the 12-hour chart soon. Bitcoin is volatile. BBands like this predict a move in one direction or the other. A direction for the price will be more firmly established in the next five days. If it breaks down I expect slower growth over the next four to six months as well as significantly less volatility. If we break up, then I think we’ll see continued parabolic growth on the log chart and a new ATH in the next month. Clearly, I think that the price breaking down one more time will be good for Bitcoin long-term.
We can sustain BBands this tight for months at a time. Observe the 12-hour bands In April through June in 2017. That pattern shows the price doubling in 2 months. So, nothing definitive there. Having a direction doesn't mean we'll have a big change in price, though.
Bouncing off the bottom of our short-term trend
We've bounced off the bottom of our short-term trend 4 times in the last two weeks with decreasing bear volume. That indicates that there's a lot of support at the bottom of our trend. The drop in volume shows that bears are running out of supply.
The short-term up trend is sustainable
The slope of our short-term trend is only slightly greater than the 6-month trend. IMO, fundamentals show that it's possible to maintain that trend indefinitely. That's true of a rational market, anyway.
- Segwit adoption http://segwit.party/charts/
- Lightning adoption
- Mempool clearing out https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#24h
- 2 – 5 satoshi transaction fees being confirmed again
Local Bitcoins Volume is growing
Volume at Local Bitcoins is about 5x to 6x what it was this time last year. I'm not sure they can bust at the seams like that for another year, but linear growth from here seems like a conservative expectation for at least the next year. I suspect we're going to see about 40 to 80 million USD a day flow into Bitcoin through Local Bitcoins by the end of 2018. That will be an important metric used to analyze our entrance into a pre-halving market through 2019.
Sentiment is as low as we've seen in a while
Consider the price and infrastructure of Bitcoin today vs six months ago. Consider the attacks we've flourished through. It's normal to see sentiment turn against Bitcoin. If it didn't we'd see unstainable growth and even more volatility. If you bet against the crowd, now is the time to make a bet.
Going back into my hole and shutting up while I'm proven right, again. Maybe I'll check in again later this week.
Go to http://moonmath.win for the full update and rainbow charts
|Label||7-day Performance||30-day Performance||60-day Performance||90-day Performance||2017 – Present Performance||2016 – Present Performance||2015 – Present Performance||2014 – Present Performance||2013 – Present Performance||2012 – Present Performance||2011 – Present Performance||July 2010 – Present Performance|
|Starting Price USD||$ 11,522.86||$ 14,427.87||$ 9,816.35||$ 6,121.80||$ 997.69||$ 434.46||$ 313.92||$ 770.44||$ 13.30||$ 5.27||$ 0.30||$ 0.09|
|Compounding Daily Periodic Rate||0.21%||-0.70%||0.29%||0.72%||0.63%||0.44%||0.32%||0.18%||0.37%||0.35%||0.41%||0.43%|
|Over $ 20,000.00 on||2018-10-08||Never!!!||2018-07-30||2018-04-12||2018-04-21||2018-05-29||2018-07-11||2018-11-15||2018-06-20||2018-06-27||2018-06-02||2018-05-26|
|Over $ 31,622.78 on||2019-05-13||Never!!!||2019-01-03||2018-06-14||2018-07-03||2018-09-11||2018-11-30||2019-07-24||2018-10-23||2018-11-06||2018-09-22||2018-09-10|
|Over $ 100,000.00 on||2020-11-08||Never!!!||2020-02-01||2018-11-21||2019-01-02||2019-06-03||2019-11-22||2021-04-13||2019-09-02||2019-10-03||2019-06-30||2019-06-04|
|Over $ 1,000,000.00 on||2023-11-02||Never!!!||2022-03-30||2019-10-06||2020-01-03||2020-11-13||2021-11-04||2024-09-23||2021-05-22||2021-07-26||2021-01-11||2020-11-20|