Price of Bitcoin AMA: I’m Emiliano Pagnotta, Assistant Professor of Finance at Imperial College Business School. I have recently published a research paper titled ‘Bitcoin As Decentralized Money: Prices, Mining Rewards, and Network Security’. AMA! (Live at 10am ET, Wed 28 Nov 2018)

Hi Reddit! I’m Emiliano Pagnotta, Assistant Professor of Finance at Imperial College Business School. I have recently published a research paper titled ‘Bitcoin As Decentralized Money: Prices, Mining Rewards, and Network Security’.

About the paper:

In it, I address the determination and evolution of bitcoin prices and propose a simple monetary model that, unlike traditional ones, captures salient features of a decentralized network. In the framework I propose, network users forecast the transactional and resale value of bitcoin holdings and consider the risk of a network attack.

Miners contribute resources that enhance network security and compete for mining rewards received in units of the same token used by consumers. In equilibrium, the overall production of network security and the bitcoin price are jointly determined. Put simply, price does not follow the system hashrate and the hashrate does not passively follow the price either.

I develop several empirical predictions that show how the characteristics of network technologies and participants, users and miners, affect the number and dynamic stability properties of equilibria.

Regarding reward halvings, I find that the relation between bitcoin prices and the supply growth rate is not monotonic: the same price is consistent with different rates. The model’s outcomes demonstrate how intrinsic price–security feedback effects can amplify or moderate the price volatility effect of demand and supply shocks. I find rational patterns of price momentum with frequent booms and crashes and that small and large bubbles can exist in equilibrium and show how the probability of bursting decreases with the bitcoin price.

Earlier this year I published an article on the ‘Value of Bitcoin and Decentralized Network Assets’. I held an AMA on the topic, which can be seen here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/8c05vr/hi_rbitcoin_im_emiliano_pagnotta_assistant/

About me:

  • My research focuses on the exchange and valuation of financial assets and the organization and evolution of the markets where those assets trade in.
  • Recently, my work analyzes the consequences of speed and fragmentation in financial markets, the identification of private information in stock and derivatives markets, and the valuation of Bitcoin and other blockchain assets. This research is regularly presented in leading academic and professional conferences and published in academic journals such as Econometrica.
  • Before joining Imperial College, I was at the New York University Stern School of Business. I hold a Ph.D. in Economics from Northwestern University.

I’ll be back at 10am ET Wednesday 28 Nov to answer your questions, ask me anything!

Proof:

http://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/e.pagnotta

http://www.emilianopagnotta.com/

To learn more about me and my research, follow me on Twitter @esp_research and LinkedIn.

submitted by /u/esp-research
[link] [comments]
Bitcoin – The Currency of the Internet

Craig Wright actually did completely original research! Just kidding, I caught him blatantly plagiarizing yet again.

Old plagiarism 1.

Old plagiarism 2.

New plagiarism from this paper.

Here are the two uncited sources: source 1 and source 2. There may be more uncited sources, but I got bored. These two sources cover almost half of the paper.

As before, the plagiarism is blatant and intentional. He basically substituted the word 'transaction' for 'infection' and made minimal other textual changes. All the math has been stolen because Craig simply can't do math.

Various Examples:

and (maybe the most obvious — just click back and forth on these two images)

and

Serially taking credit for other people's work. It's the Craig Wright way.

submitted by /u/Contrarian__
[link] [comments]
Bitcoin – The Currency of the Internet

Research Report (Chain Analysis) on Bitcoin Shows Increasing Levels of Adoption

Hey everyone,

Recently curated some data from CoinMetrics wrt the overall number of transactions on the protocol, the average fees, and other relevant details.

You can find the full link to the research study here: https://blog.zerononcense.com/2018/10/bitcoin-chain-analysis-data-science-pt-1-increasing-of-users-are-gravitating-toward-actual-use-of-bitcoin-vs-trading/

From what I've seen so far (have only compiled the first part of my research study), there has been an 80% increase in the total TX usage on the Bitcoin protocol from May to October, which is very bullish, in my opinion.

This has been a steady rate of increase as well and not something that spiked out of nowhere. This, in my opinion, seems to indicate that more and more people are actually using Bitcoin for its intended purpose rather than simply trading around exchanges 24/7.

I don't to really delve too deeply into the price here because I know that this Reddit is not for that, but I figured that this would be of distinct interest for those that are wondering about the status of Bitcoin.

I'd appreciate it if you all took the opportunity to check out the research that I curated on my blog and lend me some feedback. Feel free to show friends, others and share it wherever you please.

Other information you can find in there:

  1. The average fees have reduced exponentially on the protocol. Even the few network spikes in fees are nowhere near where they used to be in late 2017. That shows that, at least at this point, the protocol has improved in terms of the fees that it charges for its throughput. Although this is something that I imagine may be hurting miners even more.

  2. The actual protocol use is decoupled from exchange volume. Thus, exchange volume cannot simply be looked at as the only indicator of Bitcoin sentiment.

  3. The idea that Bitcoin is 'dead' or 'dying' is very unsubstantiated and may even be close to being debunked with this current chain analysis.

Again, I'm anxious to read any and all feedback on this!

Thank you in advance for taking the time to read through, whether your response is negative or positive.

submitted by /u/Randomshortdude
[link] [comments]
Bitcoin – The Currency of the Internet