We're on day 38 of our DCA. There are 204 days left until you've acquired your first full position in Bitcoin.
Weekend Price action
After this last weekend some of you are probably still wondering if I'm stuck on stability. Have I caught up with the times? Am I going to make things right? Am I changing my position?
Let's work through it together by stepping back and taking a look at what might have changed in our projections since acquiring these new data over the weekend.
The Rearview Mirror
I'm marking periods of observed distribution with green blocks and periods of accumulation with a blue box. We haven't known it when in periods of accumulation in the past and I don't think it's possible to know when you are. Sometimes people guess and they get it right. If anybody can do that consistently then they can write a best-selling book on trading and end market instability forever.
The same is true for distribution. You can only observe the market in hindsight. So, looking at the market in these terms is extremely limited if you're trying to make projections or understand where we might be headed.
Before the weekend I thought we were in a period of accumulation. I was wrong.
You'll also notice that I moved around where we are on the daily projection. Today, the green projection matches up with February 18th, 2012. The red projection matches up with April 14th, 2015.
I changed the projections so the matched up with market bottoms that were near stable periods instead of matching up periods based on the beginning of a periods that had high stability and low RSI. The dates are close to the same, but we get nice market bottoms to match up with our current chart.
Looking for an opportunity to shift my perspective and I'm seeing some. I had been optimistic that a period of low volatility had shot off like a rocket, and that, maybe, we'd see bullish recovery by the end of the summer. I'm less convinced of that now. In fact, I'm looking at this chart and wondering if we're going to go sideways through the end of the year. Attempting a new ATH in 2018 is probably off the table unless there's a barrage of good news that flips the market into overdrive.
Distribution and Accumulation
I've been going on about the debate between distribution and accumulation. They're effectively two sides of the coin that the market is slipping between all the time? What's the motivation of buyers and sellers? You can't really know, but there are some indicators we can use that help us guess at that broadly.
Transaction volume looks incredible overall, but we're not seeing growth in North American or Central/South Asia.
Transaction volume growth is coming from Europe and Latin America; places that have distressed currencies and ubiquitous access to (mostly) stable networks.
We're not seeing a rapid influx of capital anywhere, but if you compare actual Bitcoin adoption in places that are using it, presumably for Bitcoin's intended purpose, then I think you start to see an emerging pattern.
There's growing irrational exuberance among bears illustrated by market descriptions of diverse use cases for Blockchain technology. It's as though the discovery of a new application of the underlying technology is automatically a candidate for a new paradigm in human experience. This is analogous to what we saw around Internet startups in 1995 – 2000. After exposing the market to nearly 1.8 trillion USD in lost value it took two and a half years to find a market bottom. The scale of Bitcoin is very different, but I think it's possible that if alts don't shake out in this market then we're headed for something much worse on a much larger scale.
Actual–real world–Blockchain usage is low while acquisition of cryptocurrencies for speculation is very high. Acquisition for speculation pushes mining infrastructure along; as we've seen. infrastructure isn't fake; it's very real. You can't fake a miner and you can't fake the electricity it's using unless you're stealing it. That economy has grown up and it will keep growing through this market, despite and because of what speculators fail to see: fundamental real world usage.
Transactions are going up, dollars are going down. You don't see things like LocalBitcoins popping up for alts because the alt market, and ICOs, are entirely composed of a group of speculators who have lost their collective minds. Thinking that Bitcoin usage in coffee shops implies is simply not appealing metric. I don't want to mess around in a project where the end game is a Venti-Mocha-Frappachino at Starbucks.
An Alternative to Corruption
Bitcoin isn't here for adoption on Wall Street. It isn't a technology that makes sharing information easier. It isn't something that's meant to overthrow Uber or create a new sharing economy. There isn't some killer application for blockchain that's going to change the economics of how software applications are developed.
Bitcoin protects people who are forced to suffer under systems where power, corruption, and incompetence control the value of money. Any other application for a blockchain I've seen isn't as significant and it doesn't qualify as part of the revolution that Bitcoin already is.
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